RESOURCE CENTRE

Get smart on prediction trading

A practical guide to understanding prediction markets — how they work, how to trade them, and what the rules look like in Canada.

Start with the basics

Here's how prediction markets actually work, from the contracts you trade to the returns you earn.

From arbitrage to yes shares, here's every prediction market term defined in plain language.

How event contracts work, how they differ from other derivatives, and why probability matters more than luck .

Prediction markets share some DNA with futures and options, but the differences matter. Here's how they stack up.

One pays out when an event happens; the other is a binding contract to buy or sell an asset. This and other key distinctions explained here.

A look at how options and prediction markets differ — and when each one might fit your goals.

Behind every contract price is a hidden probability. Here's how to find it — and what it tells you.

Learn how to estimate true probability, calculate expected value, and trade with discipline instead of gut feeling.

Whether you're protecting your portfolio or trading prediction markets directly, learn the risks and how to manage them.

A look at what's allowed, what's not, and who's enforcing the rules.

Yes, your prediction market gains are likely taxable. Here's what Canadian investors need to know.

Put what you've learned to work.