Finance for Humans
A Crank’s Guide to Investing: How to Build an End Times Portfolio
As a fun thought exercise, let’s try to build a disaster-proof portfolio for four not-totally-implausible scenarios.
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Most of us don’t listen to the cranks on Reddit who claim A ROGUE PLANET IS ON A COLLISION COURSE WITH EARTH or YELLOWSTONE IS GOING TO BLOW. Because, honestly, what are the chances? Well, they’re not totally zero, so as a fun summer thought exercise, let’s try to build a disaster-proof portfolio for four not-totally-implausible scenarios. You’re welcome, future blacksmithery investors.
Calamity 1: Mass cognitive decline derails human progress
TLDR Fear Index™ (scariness divided by likelihood): 0.07
People most likely to say I told you so: The woman who wrote that viral end-of-reading , Mike Judge
Best-performing assets: Candy Crush, day-in-the-life influencers, wax museums
Worst-performing assets: Philip Glass albums, hummus, The New York Review of Books, the Criterion Collection, natural wine
Company of the decade: Beast Industries
What it will mean for Rick Rubin: World domination
Calamity 2: Population collapse cripples the global economy and creates an overabundance of old folks
TLDR Fear Index™: 0.254
Person most likely to say I told you so: U.S. Vice President JD Vance, whose many descendants will, in an ironic but not entirely unsatisfying twist of fate, be stuck taking care of all the childless cat ladies
Best-performing assets: Chinese dark factories, body pillows
Worst-performing investments: Minivans, bunk beds, bouncy castles, rock-tumbler kits
Companies of the decade: RoboTwist jar openers, Dr. Scholl’s
What it will mean for Jeff Bezos: Can’t possibly overnight that much Fixodent
Calamity 3: Sentient AI plunges humanity into darkness so it can run the world
TLDR Fear Index™: 0.119
Person most likely to say I told you so: Geoffrey Hinton, “the Godfather of AI” turned AI worrywart
Best-performing assets: Canned-gel heating fuels, bowhunting supplies, headlamp beanies, recirculating agriculture
Worst-performing assets: AI teddy bears, tanning beds, laser-tag supplies, massage chairs
Companies of the decade: Bass Pro Shops, Regal Springs tilapia farms
What it will mean for Elon Musk: He quickly shrivels up once Optimus unplugs his Neuralink and disconnects him from the human biofarm
Calamity 4: Rapidly rising oceans force populations to build makeshift floating communities and battle for the few remaining slivers of tillable land
TLDR Fear Index™: 0.0004
Person most likely to say I told you so: Al Gore
Best-performing assets: Giant canvas sails, carabiners, inflatable floating docks, private islands, portable desalination units, eyepatches, greenhouse kits
Worst-performing assets: NFTs, Oura Rings, Blue Origin tickets, chandeliers, chafing dishes, Soho House membership
Companies of the decade: Zebco, Sea-Doo
What it will mean for Kevin Costner: Gets to dust off the fishskin vest and sail the high seas again
OK, here’s the real investing wisdom
Humans find perverse pleasure in imagining the end of the world. It’s a survival mechanism that helps us process danger. And, in fairness to the cranks, sometimes awful things do happen. So why do smart people invest anyway? They’ve accepted that 1) no one knows which bad thing will happen next, and 2) it’s anyone’s guess who will be hurt by or benefit from any given disaster.
Let’s say you correctly called COVID. Nice going. Now did you also predict that markets would enter a bull run within six weeks and mint all sorts of new winners (Peloton, Zoom)? Probably not.
The difficulty of picking winners is why successful investors generally don’t try to hedge against one or two specific disasters and instead build a diversified portfolio (here’s our explainer) that can weather all sorts of calamities. The bad news for doomers is that, even if you’re right, the perfect End Times portfolio doesn’t exist.
Written By
Jared Sullivan
Jared Sullivan is an editor for Wealthsimple Magazine and author of the book "Valley So Low: One Lawyer's Fight for Justice in the Wake of America's Great Coal Catastrophe".
Written By
Stacey Woods
Stacey Woods is a regular contributor to Esquire, a former correspondent for The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, writes and consults on various TV shows, and has a recurring role as Tricia Thoon on Fox’s Arrested Development. Her first book, I, California, was published by Scribner. She lives in Joshua Tree, California with her music producer husband and their Italian Greyhound mix.
