--- title: "Trade on real-world events with Predict" description: "Have a view of the weather, economy, or finance? Turn it into a tradable position." url: "https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/predict" --- ![Predict](/build-assets/_next/static/media/Predict_Logo.838b0b59.webp) # Trade on real-world events A stock ticker showing a series of hypothetical predictions: Will there be a recession this year? Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Will openAI IPO this year? Economy Will there be a recession this year? Yes 10%No 90% Markets Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Yes 73%No 27% Climate Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Yes 42%No 58% Markets Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Yes 73%No 27% Economy Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Yes 60%No 40% Climate Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes 24%No 76% Markets Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Yes 25%No 75% Markets Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Yes 84%No 16% Economy Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Yes 12%No 88% Markets Will openAI IPO this year? Yes 70%No 30% Economy Will there be a recession this year? Yes 10%No 90% Markets Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Yes 73%No 27% Climate Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Yes 42%No 58% Markets Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Yes 73%No 27% Economy Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Yes 60%No 40% Climate Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes 24%No 76% Markets Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Yes 25%No 75% Markets Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Yes 84%No 16% Economy Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Yes 12%No 88% Markets Will openAI IPO this year? Yes 70%No 30% Economy Will there be a recession this year? Yes 10%No 90% Markets Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Yes 73%No 27% Climate Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Yes 42%No 58% Markets Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Yes 73%No 27% Economy Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Yes 60%No 40% Climate Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes 24%No 76% Markets Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Yes 25%No 75% Markets Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Yes 84%No 16% Economy Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Yes 12%No 88% Markets Will openAI IPO this year? Yes 70%No 30% Economy Will there be a recession this year? Yes 10%No 90% Markets Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Yes 73%No 27% Climate Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Yes 42%No 58% Markets Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Yes 73%No 27% Economy Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Yes 60%No 40% Climate Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes 24%No 76% Markets Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Yes 25%No 75% Markets Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Yes 84%No 16% Economy Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Yes 12%No 88% Markets Will openAI IPO this year? Yes 70%No 30% Economy Will there be a recession this year? Yes 10%No 90% Markets Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Yes 73%No 27% Climate Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Yes 42%No 58% Markets Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Yes 73%No 27% Economy Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Yes 60%No 40% Climate Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes 24%No 76% Markets Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Yes 25%No 75% Markets Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Yes 84%No 16% Economy Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Yes 12%No 88% Markets Will openAI IPO this year? Yes 70%No 30% Economy Will there be a recession this year? Yes 10%No 90% Markets Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Yes 73%No 27% Climate Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Yes 42%No 58% Markets Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Yes 73%No 27% Economy Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Yes 60%No 40% Climate Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes 24%No 76% Markets Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Yes 25%No 75% Markets Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Yes 84%No 16% Economy Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Yes 12%No 88% Markets Will openAI IPO this year? Yes 70%No 30% Economy Will there be a recession this year? Yes 10%No 90% Markets Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Yes 73%No 27% Climate Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Yes 42%No 58% Markets Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Yes 73%No 27% Economy Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Yes 60%No 40% Climate Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes 24%No 76% Markets Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Yes 25%No 75% Markets Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Yes 84%No 16% Economy Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Yes 12%No 88% Markets Will openAI IPO this year? Yes 70%No 30% Economy Will there be a recession this year? Yes 10%No 90% Markets Will bitcoin go below $50k USD in 2026? Yes 73%No 27% Climate Is the first hurricane in the Atlantic going to be named Bertha? Yes 42%No 58% Markets Is AGI going to be achieved before 2030? Yes 73%No 27% Economy Will Canadian trips to the U.S. go down 20% in 2026? Yes 60%No 40% Climate Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes 24%No 76% Markets Will the average Canadian home price be above $700k CAD by EOY? Yes 25%No 75% Markets Will Apple announce a foldable phone in 2026? Yes 84%No 16% Economy Will U.S inflation get to 5% before 2027? Yes 12%No 88% Markets Will openAI IPO this year? Yes 70%No 30% ## Have a view on the weather, economy, or finance? Turn it into a tradable position with our prediction markets app. ### Browse the largest selection of prediction markets in Canada ![A view of three positions a user can take around Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026.](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=3072,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/3cGJx7brZgNxRQLTH5mJ16/0f2da588ac8653a138dfcb774692570d/1475x2560_Predict_Sequence_01__00212.png) Trade what you actually understand: index performance, rate decisions, rainfall in your city. Browse our marketplace, then turn your view into a position. ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=3072,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/3YGqe2NnwUBRCe7TYufD3m/0097fd9d1142b45d4b7bf4399e20aada/Predict_PDP_Scrolly_Desktop_00162.png) ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=3072,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/6PtMkqoTfcEHN3Br2lFqzs/d92328cba089bef6f830650042e3a37e/Predict_PDP_Scrolly_Mobile_00006.png) ## A prediction markets app that always has your back * ### Built to be understood For many Canadians, this is brand new — so we built learning into the app itself. You’ll get mandatory onboarding before your first trade, a guided walkthrough of your first contract, and definitions where you need them most. * ### Guardrails at every step You bring the convictions. We’ll keep you informed about your risks and when each contract resolves. You’ll also get reminders that positions can be sold at any time, liquidity warnings, and more. * ### A regulated product Getting started means verifying your identity first. Every contract you trade has the same level of scrutiny and controls as other derivatives. ## How prediction markets stack up against our other derivatives | | Prediction markets | Futures | Options | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | How it works | A simple yes or no position | A binding contract to buy or sell at set prices on a set date | The right to buy or sell at a set price | | The risk | Max losses are capped based on what you’ve put in | High, as losses can go beyond initial investments | More flexible, as you can let contracts expire worthless | | Price per contract | $0.02 USD | $1 USD | $0-$1 USD | | Trade on | Financials, economics, the weather | Commodities, equities, currencies | Commodities, equities, indices | ## What you need to know about prediction markets * ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=1440,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/2sdFle5Aw8Oiz6ZZM0Q2aE/3ff639b2658004d7aaa9a1e03993fa2f/predict___article_card_a___video___en-CA.webp) ### What are prediction markets? [Read more](/en-ca/prediction-trading-resources) * ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=1440,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/2mfvT7U6nWcE4U68CglcPN/9177ed62b3d7430789625129a164a4fb/predict-articleCardB-video-en-CA.webp) ### Mistakes to avoid when trading prediction markets [Read more](/en-ca/learn/prediction-market-mistakes) * ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=3072,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/9KlqO79OpiFqOvYeas2gp/7f4c73e0bdbfd939031069731c5bf1a6/Predict_PDP_CarouselCardC_00081.webp) ### How to read a predictions contract [Read more](/en-ca/learn/annotated-guide-prediction-markets) * ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=3072,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/2rtihOR8m78gtdMhIwwhyX/9835461aa414a610b792b0e43ad8d178/Predict_PDP_CarouselCardD__00067.png) ### How we built the Predict app [Read more](https://newsroom.wealthsimple.com/were-launching-a-regulated-prediction-markets-trading-app-heres-why-and-how) ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=3072,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/6V7sg0yi0d8ZA4KrgIQVkg/01f4ff36c1df0f94691fe992fcbd8a9f/Predict_PDP_CTA_Desktop_00008.webp) ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=90,width=3072,fit=scale-down/https://images.ctfassets.net/v44fuld738we/5VuM1eUDt4hrhDPeXlzpMx/afe74d5a5162da5f264ed0947beafb67/Predict_PDP_CTA_Mobile_00037.webp) ## Turn convictions into trades ## FAQs ### What is prediction markets trading? Prediction markets, sometimes called an information market or event market, let people trade on the outcome of real-world events. Each contract poses a yes or no question. The price of a contract at any given time reflects what the market collectively thinks the probability of that outcome is. So, if lots of people think the sun will rise tomorrow, the price of a “Yes” contract increases. Each correct contract pays out $1, minus fees. You can learn more at our [resource centre](/en-ca/prediction-trading-resources). ### Is this connected to my Wealthsimple account? Is it the same app? Wealthsimple Predict is a separate app. If you are an existing Wealthsimple client, you can use the same credentials to log in. You can also fund Predict accounts with your Wealthsimple account. ### Which contracts will be available on Wealthsimple Predict? You’ll be able to trade contracts across three categories:  financial markets, the economy, and climate. Have a take on when the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates? Or the price of oil? Turn it into a position. We’re one of two brokerages, regulated by CIRO, that can offer this trading product in Canada. ### How are event contracts priced? Event contracts are typically priced between $0.01 and $0.99 USD. The price shifts with supply and demand, so at any given moment, it reflects the market’s implied probability that the event will occur. For example, a contract trading at $0.60 means traders collectively think there’s a 60% chance that event happens. ### What’s the most I can lose or profit on an event contract? The most you can lose is the price you paid for the event contract. Your potential profit depends on your situation: If you wait until a contract settles, and you’ve chosen the right outcome, you’ll earn the difference between what you paid and $1 USD. If you sell a contract before it settles, you’ll earn the difference between what you paid and the price you sold at. ### Can I exit a position before the event outcome occurs? Yes. You can sell, or exit your position, any time before the contract settles. ### What hours can I trade prediction markets? You can trade 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with one exception: You won’t be able to trade on Thursdays between 3:00 am–5:00 am ET, when the exchange runs scheduled maintenance. We’ll notify you in the app if there are any other trading-related outages. ### Who is your market provider? How do new contracts get added? Kalshi is our prediction markets exchange. We evaluate which new contracts are available to trade daily. Every listed contract complies with applicable regulations, prohibitions screening, and the 30-day term-to-maturity requirement currently in effect in Canada. ### How do markets resolve? It’s determined at the exchange level. Each contract has unique settlement criteria, which you can find in our app. You’ll also be able to find information around timing or early close criteria, if it applies. You should always — yes, always! — check the event question, the deadline, and the settlement/resolution source so you understand exactly what determines the outcome. This is especially important for closely related outcomes, where definitions matter. Please note that each contract has a unique closing date. ### What are the fees? Each trade — buy or sell — carries a fee of $0.02 USD per contract. All prediction markets trade in USD. You can deposit USD to your account, or deposit CAD and pay our [standard FX rate](/en-ca/legal/fees/trade). ![](/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,quality=75,width=3072,fit=scale-down/build-assets/_next/static/media/Coin.f9f2e07f.webp)